Independiente 1–0 Rosario Central: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosario Central

K. Lomónaco 17'

8/17/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Independiente40%

×Draw31%

Rosario Central28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.84

Independiente

1.07

Rosario Central

0.84

Independiente creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.08

creates per match

0.85

0.83

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Independiente

1.08

Rosario Central

0.85

allows per match

Independiente

0.83

Rosario Central

1.06

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente+0.35scores more

Rosario Central-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

72%

Independiente or Rosario Central

69%

Draw or Rosario Central

60%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

16%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

66%

Independiente 2+ goals

29%

Independiente 3+ goals

9%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

57%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

21%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

59%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.83 · 7 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.08 + Rosario Central defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Rosario Central attack 0.85 + Independiente defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independiente scores more

40%

level

31%

Rosario Central scores more

28%

Independiente at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

K. Lomónaco

Independiente · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

K. Lomónaco↳ F. Loyola

24'

Damián Martínez

32'

Tobías Cervera← A. Módica

34'

43'

43'

45+5'

45'

46'

46'

J. Campaz← F. Lo Celso

53'

Miguel Barbieri

60'

F. Mancuello← D. Martínez

60'

S. Montiel← D. Tarzia

63'

M. Lovera← L. Giaccone

69'

F. Mallo← M. Barbieri

75'

S. Hidalgo← A. Luna

80'

Santiago Hidalgo

90+6'

Federico Mancuello

90+1'

I. Maestro Puch← G. Ávalos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteRosario

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots6

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.23

4Corners1

16Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

357Total Passes392

233Accurate Passes273

65%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.10Goals Prevented0.10

Discipline

16Fouls20

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0