Independiente 1–0 Rosario Central: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosario Central

F. Mancuello 32'

2/14/2024

League #1032 · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente58%

×Draw25%

Rosario Central17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.71

Independiente

1.57

Rosario Central

0.71

Independiente creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.43

1.00

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Independiente

1.00

Rosario Central

0.43

allows per match

Independiente

1.00

Rosario Central

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Rosario Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

83%

Independiente or Rosario Central

75%

Draw or Rosario Central

42%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

31%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

79%

Independiente 2+ goals

46%

Independiente 3+ goals

21%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

51%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

16%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

78%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.00 + Rosario Central defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Rosario Central attack 0.43 + Independiente defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Independiente scores more

58%

level

25%

Rosario Central scores more

17%

Independiente at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Pérez

Independiente · D

8.0

Match Events

24'

32'

36'

62'

62'

E. Ocampo← V. Malcorra

63'

J. Gómez← M. Lovera

74'

I. Maestro Puch← F. Mancuello

74'

D. Martínez← L. González

75'

F. Ibarra← K. Ortíz

75'

F. Lo Celso← J. Campaz

81'

81'

90+2'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteRosario

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots5

6Corners5

11Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots5

5On Target1

7Off Target2

4Blocked2

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

408Total Passes334

316Accurate Passes242

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3