Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosario Central vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
11/1/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Rosario Central46%
×Draw28%
Barracas Central26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.32
Barracas Central
0.91

Rosario Central creates 45% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 72 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.43
Barracas Central
0.86

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.96
Barracas Central
1.21

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
74%
Rosario Central or Barracas Central
72%
Draw or Barracas Central
54%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
21%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
73%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
38%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
15%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
60%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
23%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
64%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 127 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.43 + Barracas Central defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barracas Central attack 0.86 + Rosario Central defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosario Central scores more
46%
level
28%
Barracas Central scores more
26%

Rosario Central at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Barracas Central

Barracas Central beat Rosario Central 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.