Barracas Central 1–1 Rosario Central

Barracas Central

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rosario Central

11/6/2023

League #1032 · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Claudio Fabián Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barracas Central58%

×Draw25%

Rosario Central17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barracas CentralExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.71

Barracas Central

1.57

Rosario Central

0.71

Barracas Central creates 121% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.43

1.00

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Barracas Central

1.00

Rosario Central

0.43

allows per match

Barracas Central

1.00

Rosario Central

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barracas Central+0.00on par

Rosario Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw

83%

Barracas Central or Rosario Central

75%

Draw or Rosario Central

42%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+

31%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals

79%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

46%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

21%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

51%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

16%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

78%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 1.00 + Rosario Central defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Rosario Central attack 0.43 + Barracas Central defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Barracas Central scores more

58%

level

25%

Rosario Central scores more

17%

Barracas Central at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff