Rosario Central 0–1 Barracas Central

Rosario Central

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barracas Central

7/8/2024

Copa Argentina · Round of 32Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosario Central50%

×Draw28%

Barracas Central22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchBarracas Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.77

Rosario Central

1.33

Barracas Central

0.77

Rosario Central creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.86

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Rosario Central

2.00

Barracas Central

0.67

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.86

Barracas Central

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par

Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Barracas Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

78%

Rosario Central or Barracas Central

72%

Draw or Barracas Central

50%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

24%

Barracas Central wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

74%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

38%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

15%

Barracas Central 1+ goals

54%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

18%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

70%

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 2.00 + Barracas Central defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barracas Central attack 0.67 + Rosario Central defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rosario Central scores more

50%

level

28%

Barracas Central scores more

22%

Rosario Central at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff