Romania 4–1 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cyprus

F. Coman 83'

R. Marin 80', 41'

D. Bîrligea 2'

I. Pittas 52'

11/18/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Romania70%

×Draw20%

Cyprus10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.60

Romania

1.99

Cyprus

0.60

Romania creates 232% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

0.54

0.67

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Romania

1.83

Cyprus

0.54

allows per match

Romania

0.67

Cyprus

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Romania or draw

90%

Romania or Cyprus

80%

Draw or Cyprus

30%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

44%

Cyprus wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

86%

Romania 2+ goals

59%

Romania 3+ goals

32%

Cyprus 1+ goals

45%

Cyprus 2+ goals

12%

Cyprus 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

87%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Cyprus away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.83 + Cyprus defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.99

Cyprus attack 0.54 + Romania defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Romania scores more

70%

level

20%

Cyprus scores more

10%

Romania at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Marin

Romania · M

9.2

Match Events

2'

D. Bîrligea↳ V. Mihăilă

15'

Andreas Karo

41'

R. Marin

46'

M. Antoniou← A. Karo

46'

C. Charalampous← D. Spoljaric

46'

I. Pittas← A. Kakoullis

52'

I. Pittas

53'

Minas Antoniou

66'

A. Șut← D. Olaru

67'

Ș. Târnovanu← F. Niță

67'

F. Coman← M. Marin

68'

A. Burcă← R. Drăgușin

74'

Konstantinos Laifis

74'

A. Makris← M. Tzionis

77'

Konstantinos Laifis

77'

Konstantinos Laifis

79'

N. Panagiotou← P. Sotiriou

80'

R. Marin↳ F. Coman

83'

F. Coman↳ I. Hagi

84'

A. Mitriță← V. Mihăilă

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaCyprus

Overview

66%Possession34%

19Total Shots8

5Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots8

9On Target4

7Off Target1

3Blocked3

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

605Total Passes315

530Accurate Passes247

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1