Cyprus 0–3 Romania: Result & Stats

Cyprus

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Romania

R. Drăgușin 36'

R. Marin 25' (pen)

D. Man 16'

10/12/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 3AEK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cyprus29%

×Draw27%

Romania44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CyprusExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.39

Cyprus

1.08

Romania

1.39

Romania creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

0.91

creates per match

1.50

1.27

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cyprus

0.91

Romania

1.50

allows per match

Cyprus

1.27

Romania

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw

56%

Cyprus or Romania

73%

Draw or Romania

71%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+

11%

Romania wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals

66%

Cyprus 2+ goals

29%

Cyprus 3+ goals

10%

Romania 1+ goals

75%

Romania 2+ goals

40%

Romania 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)

40%

Romania (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 0.91 + Romania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Romania attack 1.50 + Cyprus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cyprus scores more

29%

level

27%

Romania scores more

44%

Romania at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Man

Romania · F

8.3

Match Events

11'

Ioannis Kousoulos

16'

D. Man

24'

Konstantinos Laifis

25'

R. MarinPenalty

31'

Grīgorīs Kastanos

33'

M. Stylianou← M. Antoniou

36'

41'

45+6'

46'

46'

P. Sotiriou← L. Loizou

46'

C. Charalampous← I. Kousoulos

62'

63'

63'

72'

72'

I. Hagi← D. Man

75'

A. Makris← G. Kastanos

82'

V. Ghiță← R. Drăgușin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CyprusRomania

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots19

4Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots19

4On Target9

8Off Target4

3Blocked6

7Inside Box11

8Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

362Total Passes509

292Accurate Passes432

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2