Cyprus 2–2 Romania: Result & Stats | League #32

Cyprus

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Romania

C. Charalampous 76'

L. Loizou 29'

D. Dragus 18', 2'

9/9/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 6GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cyprus34%

×Draw26%

Romania41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CyprusExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.45

Cyprus

1.29

Romania

1.45

Romania creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

1.60

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cyprus

1.00

Romania

1.29

allows per match

Cyprus

1.60

Romania

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw

59%

Cyprus or Romania

74%

Draw or Romania

66%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+

15%

Romania wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals

72%

Cyprus 2+ goals

37%

Cyprus 3+ goals

14%

Romania 1+ goals

77%

Romania 2+ goals

42%

Romania 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)

45%

Romania (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Romania away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 1.00 + Romania defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Romania attack 1.29 + Cyprus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cyprus scores more

34%

level

26%

Romania scores more

41%

Romania at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Dragus

Romania · F

8.6

Match Events

2'

D. Dragus

18'

D. Dragus↳ R. Marin

21'

Nicușor Bancu

29'

L. Loizou↳ G. Kastanos

44'

Andrei Burcă

46'

Anderson Correia← K. Pileas

48'

Ioannis Kousoulos

54'

Ioannis Pittas

62'

C. Charalampous← I. Kousoulos

62'

A. Kakoullis← L. Loizou

65'

D. Miculescu← A. Dobre

68'

C. Kyriakou← I. Kosti

76'

C. Charalampous↳ A. Kakoullis

80'

A. Sut← R. Marin

80'

D. Sorescu← D. Man

85'

F. Tanase←

88'

N. Koutsakos← M. Tzionis

90'

Charalampos Charalampous

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CyprusRomania

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots8

2.25Expected Goals (xG)0.97

7Corners1

7Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target5

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

12Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

461Total Passes329

393Accurate Passes244

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls21

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

League #32: Cyprus 2–2 Romania

Cyprus and Romania drew 2-2 in League #32 on September 9, 2025.

Goals: D. Dragus (2', 18'), L. Loizou (29'), C. Charalampous (76').

Cyprus controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.

Cyprus vs Romania — League #32 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #32: Cyprus 2–2 Romania