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Romania vs Austria — League #32 2026

Romania
Romania
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria
Austria
V. Ghita 90'
10/12/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 8Arena Nationala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Romania44%
×Draw28%
Austria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania
1.30
Austria
0.98

Romania creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Romania
0.86
Austria
1.25

allows per match

Romania
0.71
Austria
1.75

finishing

Romania+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Romania or draw
72%
Romania or Austria
72%
Draw or Austria
56%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+
20%
Austria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals
73%
Romania 2+ goals
37%
Romania 3+ goals
14%
Austria 1+ goals
62%
Austria 2+ goals
26%
Austria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)
61%
Austria (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Austria away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 0.86 + Austria defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Austria attack 1.25 + Romania defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Romania scores more
44%
level
28%
Austria scores more
28%

Romania at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. HagiRomaniaRomania · M
7.7

Match Events

6'
Christoph Baumgartner
40'
Romano Schmid
53'
Andrei Burcă
56'
Phillipp Mwene
65'
A. Prass← P. Mwene
65'
F. Grillitsch← C. Baumgartner
67'
Valentin Mihăilă
72'
V. Ghita← M. Popescu
81'
David Alaba
86'
R. Florucz← M. Gregoritsch
86'
A. Schopf← R. Schmid
88'
L. Munteanu← D. Birligea
90'
V. Ghita↳ I. Hagi

Possession

46%Romania

Shots

10Romania

Pass accuracy

48%Romania

Statistics

RomaniaAustria
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots3
0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.11
2Corners4
10Fouls3
Shots
10Total Shots3
2On Target1
4Off Target1
4Blocked1
3Inside Box1
7Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
386Total Passes464
296Accurate Passes383
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls3
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Romania vs Austria

Romania beat Austria 1-0 in League #32 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: V. Ghita (90').

Austria controlled possession (54%) and registered 3 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Nationala in Bucharest.