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Austria vs Romania — League #32 2026

Austria
Austria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Romania
Romania
M. Sabitzer 60'
M. Gregoritsch 42'
F. Tanase 90'
6/7/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 3Ernst Happel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Austria49%
×Draw24%
Romania26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.66
Romania
1.15

Austria creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Austria
1.75
Romania
1.29

allows per match

Austria
1.00
Romania
1.57

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Romania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Austria or draw
74%
Austria or Romania
76%
Draw or Romania
51%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
26%
Romania wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
81%
Austria 2+ goals
49%
Austria 3+ goals
23%
Romania 1+ goals
68%
Romania 2+ goals
32%
Romania 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
65%
Romania (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Romania away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.75 + Romania defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Romania attack 1.29 + Austria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Austria scores more
49%
level
24%
Romania scores more
26%

Austria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. SabitzerAustriaAustria · M
8.6

Match Events

42'
M. Gregoritsch
44'
Nicolae Stanciu
60'
M. Sabitzer↳ R. Schmid
61'
S. Posch← P. Wimmer
61'
M. Arnautovic← M. Gregoritsch
61'
A. Sut← R. Marin
69'
K. Danso← M. Wober
78'
D. Alibec← D. Birligea
78'
D. Miculescu← D. Man
82'
X. Schlager← C. Baumgartner
82'
F. Grillitsch← R. Schmid
84'
A. Mitrita← D. Dragus
85'
F. Tanase← N. Stanciu
89'
Florian Grillitsch
90'
F. Tanase↳ A. Ratiu

Possession

60%Austria

Shots

14Austria

Pass accuracy

53%Austria

Statistics

AustriaRomania
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots10
5Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots10
9On Target3
3Off Target3
2Blocked4
10Inside Box9
4Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
506Total Passes338
443Accurate Passes266
88%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Austria vs Romania

Austria beat Romania 2-1 in League #32 on June 7, 2025.

Goals: M. Gregoritsch (42'), M. Sabitzer (60'), F. Tanase (90').

Austria controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna.