Romania 0–1 Austria: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Austria

Alessandro Schöpf 75'

10/14/2020

UEFA Nations League · League B - 4Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Romania51%

×Draw27%

Austria23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.88

Romania

1.46

Austria

0.88

Romania creates 66% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.09

0.67

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Romania

1.83

Austria

1.09

allows per match

Romania

0.67

Austria

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Romania or draw

77%

Romania or Austria

73%

Draw or Austria

49%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

25%

Austria wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

77%

Romania 2+ goals

43%

Romania 3+ goals

18%

Austria 1+ goals

59%

Austria 2+ goals

22%

Austria 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

69%

Austria (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Austria away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.83 + Austria defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Austria attack 1.09 + Romania defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Romania scores more

51%

level

27%

Austria scores more

23%

Romania at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Stefan Lainer

Austria · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

Martin Hinteregger

34'

Ciprian Deac

53'

Stefan Posch← Martin Hinteregger

56'

Andrei Burcă

59'

Christoph Baumgartner

62'

Alexandru Cicâldău← Alexandru Maxim

62'

Claudiu Keșerü← Denis Alibec

71'

Michael Gregoritsch

75'

Alessandro Schöpf↳ Christoph Baumgartner

77'

Ianis Hagi← Alexandru Mitriță

77'

Reinhold Ranftl← Alessandro Schöpf

77'

Florian Grillitsch← Julian Baumgartlinger

83'

Gabriel Iancu← Nicolae Stanciu

83'

George Pușcaș← Ciprian Deac

90+5'

David Alaba

90'

Saša Kalajdžić← Michael Gregoritsch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaAustria

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots9

3Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots9

2On Target3

3Off Target5

3Blocked1

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

537Total Passes513

430Accurate Passes404

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides3