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Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
9/27/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 11Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rodina Moskva II53%
×Draw28%
Kaluga19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.36
Kaluga
0.70

Rodina Moskva II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.72
Kaluga
0.71

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
0.68
Kaluga
1.00

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
81%
Rodina Moskva II or Kaluga
72%
Draw or Kaluga
47%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
26%
Kaluga wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
39%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
16%
Kaluga 1+ goals
50%
Kaluga 2+ goals
16%
Kaluga 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
73%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kaluga attack 0.71 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
53%
level
28%
Kaluga scores more
19%

Rodina Moskva II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga

Rodina Moskva II beat Kaluga 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moscow.