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Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
5/15/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Trenirovochnaya Ploshchadka Orbita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kaluga37%
×Draw26%
Rodina Moskva II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.33
Rodina Moskva II
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

Kaluga
0.95
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
63%
Kaluga or Rodina Moskva II
74%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
63%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
17%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
74%
Kaluga 2+ goals
38%
Kaluga 3+ goals
15%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
38%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
50%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kaluga scores more
37%
level
26%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
37%

Kaluga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Kaluga 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at Trenirovochnaya Ploshchadka Orbita in Kaluga.