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Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
8/16/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 5Orbita stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kaluga50%
×Draw24%
Rodina Moskva II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.67
Rodina Moskva II
1.12

Kaluga creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Kaluga
1.00
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
74%
Kaluga or Rodina Moskva II
76%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
50%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
27%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
81%
Kaluga 2+ goals
50%
Kaluga 3+ goals
23%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
67%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
31%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
66%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kaluga scores more
50%
level
24%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
26%

Kaluga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II

Kaluga beat Rodina Moskva II 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Orbita stadium in Kaluga.