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Rodina Moskva II vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
3/22/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 4Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II40%
×Draw28%
Irtysh Omsk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.22
Irtysh Omsk
1.05

Rodina Moskva II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.11
Irtysh Omsk
0.67

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.44
Irtysh Omsk
1.33

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
68%
Rodina Moskva II or Irtysh Omsk
72%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
60%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
17%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
70%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
34%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
12%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
65%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
28%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
56%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.67 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
40%
level
28%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
32%

Rodina Moskva II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Rodina Moskva II 1–2 Irtysh Omsk

Irtysh Omsk beat Rodina Moskva II 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moscow.