Irtysh Omsk 2–2 Rodina Moskva II: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Rodina Moskva II

5/10/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 12Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Irtysh Omsk30%

×Draw30%

Rodina Moskva II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.17

Irtysh Omsk

0.95

Rodina Moskva II

1.17

Rodina Moskva II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

0.78

creates per match

1.11

1.22

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.78

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.22

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

59%

Irtysh Omsk or Rodina Moskva II

70%

Draw or Rodina Moskva II

70%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

11%

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

61%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

25%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

7%

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

69%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

33%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

42%

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.78 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

30%

level

30%

Rodina Moskva II scores more

41%

Rodina Moskva II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff