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Irtysh Omsk vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
9/22/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Irtysh Omsk33%
×Draw28%
Rodina Moskva II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.10
Rodina Moskva II
1.21

Rodina Moskva II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.19
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
61%
Irtysh Omsk or Rodina Moskva II
72%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
67%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
13%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
67%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
30%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
10%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
70%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
34%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
46%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
33%
level
28%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
39%

Rodina Moskva II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Irtysh Omsk 0–3 Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Irtysh Omsk 3-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda in Omsk.