Rodina Moskva II 2–1 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Irtysh Omsk

7/27/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 2Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva II52%

×Draw26%

Irtysh Omsk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.91

Rodina Moskva II

1.55

Irtysh Omsk

0.91

Rodina Moskva II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.72

creates per match

1.13

0.68

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.72

Irtysh Omsk

1.13

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II

0.68

Irtysh Omsk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw

78%

Rodina Moskva II or Irtysh Omsk

74%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

48%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

27%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

79%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

46%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

20%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

60%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

23%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

70%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.13 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more

52%

level

26%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

22%

Rodina Moskva II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff