Rodange 91 1–5 FC Differdange 03: Result & Stats

Rodange 91

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

FC Differdange 03

11/24/2024

National Division · Round 13Stade Joseph Philippart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodange 9123%

×Draw23%

FC Differdange 0354%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodange 91Expected goals in this matchFC Differdange 03

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.81

Rodange 91

1.08

FC Differdange 03

1.81

FC Differdange 03 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 112 away

1.07

creates per match

1.83

1.78

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Rodange 91

1.07

FC Differdange 03

1.83

allows per match

Rodange 91

1.78

FC Differdange 03

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodange 91+0.00on par

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodange 91 ↓

FC Differdange 03 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rodange 91 or draw

46%

Rodange 91 or FC Differdange 03

77%

Draw or FC Differdange 03

77%

Winning margin

Rodange 91 wins by 2+

8%

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Rodange 91 1+ goals

66%

Rodange 91 2+ goals

29%

Rodange 91 3+ goals

10%

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

84%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

54%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)

29%

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodange 91 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodange 91 attack 1.07 + FC Differdange 03 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

FC Differdange 03 attack 1.83 + Rodange 91 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rodange 91 scores more

23%

level

23%

FC Differdange 03 scores more

54%

FC Differdange 03 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Rodange 91 1–5 FC Differdange 03

FC Differdange 03 beat Rodange 91 5-1 in National Division on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Philippart in Rodange.

Rodange 91 vs FC Differdange 03 — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

National Division: Rodange 91 1–5 FC Differdange 03