FC Differdange 03 2–2 Rodange 91: Result & Stats

FC Differdange 03

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rodange 91

11/26/2025

National Division · Round 4Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FC Differdange 0367%

×Draw19%

Rodange 9114%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Differdange 03Expected goals in this matchRodange 91

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.95

FC Differdange 03

2.27

Rodange 91

0.95

FC Differdange 03 creates 139% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 69 away

2.14

creates per match

0.96

0.95

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

FC Differdange 03

2.14

Rodange 91

0.96

allows per match

FC Differdange 03

0.95

Rodange 91

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Rodange 91+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Rodange 91 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw

86%

FC Differdange 03 or Rodange 91

81%

Draw or Rodange 91

33%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

44%

Rodange 91 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

90%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

66%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

39%

Rodange 91 1+ goals

61%

Rodange 91 2+ goals

25%

Rodange 91 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

82%

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

Rodange 91 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.39 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 2.14 + Rodange 91 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.27

Rodange 91 attack 0.96 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more

67%

level

19%

Rodange 91 scores more

14%

FC Differdange 03 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Differdange 03 vs Rodange 91

FC Differdange 03 and Rodange 91 drew 2-2 in National Division on November 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange in Differdange.

FC Differdange 03 vs Rodange 91 — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC Differdange 03 vs Rodange 91