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FC Differdange 03 vs Rodange 91 — Cup 2020

FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03advanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rodange 91
Rodange 91
5/13/2026CupCup · Semi-finalsStade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Differdange 0351%
×Draw21%
Rodange 9128%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Differdange 03
2.06
Rodange 91
1.48

FC Differdange 03 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Differdange 03
3.22
Rodange 91
2.30

allows per match

FC Differdange 03
0.67
Rodange 91
0.90

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par
Rodange 91+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Rodange 91 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw
72%
FC Differdange 03 or Rodange 91
79%
Draw or Rodange 91
49%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
30%
Rodange 91 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
87%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
61%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
34%
Rodange 91 1+ goals
77%
Rodange 91 2+ goals
43%
Rodange 91 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
65%
Rodange 91 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Rodange 91 away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 3.22 + Rodange 91 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Rodange 91 attack 2.30 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more
51%
level
21%
Rodange 91 scores more
28%

FC Differdange 03 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Differdange 03 1 – 1 Rodange 91

FC Differdange 03 and Rodange 91 drew 1-1 in Cup on May 13, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange in Differdange.