Roda 1–2 PEC Zwolle: Result & Stats

Roda

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

PEC Zwolle

L. Hartjes 73'

T. van den Belt 37'

L. Thy 32'

1/30/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 18Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Roda35%

×Draw23%

PEC Zwolle42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodaExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.72

Roda

1.54

PEC Zwolle

1.72

PEC Zwolle creates 12% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 19 away

1.77

creates per match

2.16

1.27

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Roda

1.77

PEC Zwolle

2.16

allows per match

Roda

1.27

PEC Zwolle

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roda+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

PEC Zwolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Roda or draw

58%

Roda or PEC Zwolle

77%

Draw or PEC Zwolle

65%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+

17%

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals

79%

Roda 2+ goals

45%

Roda 3+ goals

20%

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

82%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

51%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)

45%

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.27 · 144 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.77 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

PEC Zwolle attack 2.16 + Roda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Roda scores more

35%

level

23%

PEC Zwolle scores more

42%

PEC Zwolle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Chirino

PEC Zwolle · M

8.3

Match Events

32'

L. Thy↳ D. Chirino

37'

T. van den Belt↳ D. Chirino

61'

N. Vossebelt← S. Ouaissa

61'

R. Postema← A. van der Heide

68'

D. Huiberts← R. Thomas

68'

G. Kastaneer← Y. Taha

68'

R. van den Berg← S. Kersten

73'

L. Hartjes↳ D. Vente

78'

J. Tutuarima← S. Lagsir

80'

M. Mallahi← T. Bijleveld

80'

G. Joppen← X. Lambrix

87'

Davy van den Berg

90+1'

J. Mpie← N. Röseler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodaPEC

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots11

3Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target3

5Off Target4

0Blocked4

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

410Total Passes469

271Accurate Passes340

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides4