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PEC Zwolle vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Roda
Roda
A. Vellios 88'
H. Medunjanin 52'
L. Thy 23' (pen)
L. Hartjes 62'
5/12/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 37MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

PEC Zwolle62%
×Draw19%
Roda18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
2.32
Roda
1.18

PEC Zwolle creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 143 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
3.05
Roda
1.41

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
0.95
Roda
1.59

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
82%
PEC Zwolle or Roda
81%
Draw or Roda
38%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
40%
Roda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
90%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
67%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
40%
Roda 1+ goals
69%
Roda 2+ goals
33%
Roda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
77%
Roda (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Roda away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 3.05 + Roda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.32

Roda attack 1.41 + PEC Zwolle defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
62%
level
19%
Roda scores more
18%

PEC Zwolle at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
B. van HintumPEC ZwollePEC Zwolle · D
8.2

Match Events

23'
L. ThyPenalty
45+1'
Phil Sieben
52'
H. Medunjanin↳ T. Beelen
58'
B. Limbombe← A. van der Heide
62'
L. Hartjes↳ B. Limbombe
68'
J. Tutuarima← D. Chirino
72'
R. Postema← L. Daneels
78'
S. Zitman← G. Caschili
79'
Romano Postema
79'
A. Vellios← Y. Taha
86'
F. Sposito← P. Sieben
88'
A. Vellios↳ D. Huiberts

Possession

64%PEC

Shots

28PEC

Pass accuracy

56%PEC

Statistics

PECRoda
Overview
64%Possession36%
28Total Shots11
5Corners3
7Fouls10
Shots
28Total Shots11
12On Target5
8Off Target3
8Blocked3
25Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
596Total Passes330
487Accurate Passes212
82%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
4Saves9
Discipline
7Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: PEC Zwolle vs Roda

PEC Zwolle beat Roda 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 12, 2023.

Goals: L. Thy (23' pen), H. Medunjanin (52'), L. Hartjes (62'), A. Vellios (88').

PEC Zwolle controlled possession (64%) and registered 28 shots to 11.

The match was played at MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle.