PEC Zwolle vs Roda — Eredivisie 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
PEC Zwolle42%
Roda35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
PEC Zwolle creates 11% more chances
Season form · 113 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
PEC Zwolle ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 113 matches
Roda away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
PEC Zwolle attack 1.32 + Roda defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66
Roda attack 1.50 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
PEC Zwolle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
PEC Zwolle substitutes
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
TelstarPEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
HeraclesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
PEC Zwolle host Roda on Saturday, 5 November 2016 at 19:45. The match is part of the Eredivisie 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: PEC Zwolle vs Roda
PEC Zwolle and Roda drew 0-0 in Eredivisie on November 5, 2016.
PEC Zwolle controlled possession (68%) and registered 24 shots to 11.
The match was played at Mac3Park Stadion in Zwolle.