Rochdale 1–2 Walsall: Result & Stats | League One

Rochdale

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Walsall

C. Camps 79'

Z. Ismail 77'

J. Ginnelly 32'

8/25/2018

League One · Round 5Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rochdale40%

×Draw26%

Walsall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.25

Rochdale

1.39

Walsall

1.25

Rochdale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 31 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

1.54

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Walsall

0.97

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Walsall

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

66%

Rochdale or Walsall

74%

Draw or Walsall

60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

19%

Walsall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

75%

Rochdale 2+ goals

40%

Rochdale 3+ goals

16%

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

54%

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Walsall away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Walsall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Walsall attack 0.97 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more

40%

level

26%

Walsall scores more

34%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Matt Done

32'

J. Ginnelly

46'

Z. Ismail← J. Ginnelly

55'

C. Andrew← O. Rathbone

67'

J. Gordon← M. Ferrier

68'

70'

77'

79'

85'

K. Ntlhe← M. Done

86'

Zeli Ismail

86'

Zeli Ismail

90+1'

K. Wilson← K. Morris

Rochdale

Walsall

1

6

3

5

27

30

8

▼

Morris

4

Dobson

11

⚽

▼

Ginnelly

9

Cook

16

▼

24

4

8

2

6

16

▼

Done

17

▼

Perkins

10

⚽

Camps

14

▼

Rathbone

18

Wilbraham

40

Henderson

Manager: K. Hill

55'▲C. Andrew←▼O. Rathbone

68'▲B. Inman←▼D. Perkins

85'▲K. Ntlhe←▼M. Done

Rochdale substitutes

9Andrew19Inman3Ntlhe12Randall5Delaney22Moore27Cannon

Manager: D. Keates

46'▲Z. Ismail←▼J. Ginnelly

67'▲J. Gordon←▼M. Ferrier

90+1'▲K. Wilson←▼K. Morris

Walsall substitutes

10Ismail29Gordon28Wilson13Dunn15Kinsella17Kouhyar19Candlin