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Rochdale vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
19:45
Salford City
Salford City
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Spotland Stadium
Big match
37%
Salford City
model favours
36%26%37%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale36%
×Draw26%
Salford City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.29
Salford City
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 156 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
63%
Rochdale or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
64%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Salford City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
72%
Rochdale 2+ goals
37%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%
Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
49%
Salford City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.31 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rochdale scores more
36%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
37%

Salford City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
51%Possession52%
70%Pass accuracy67%
10.1ShotsBiggest gap12.9
—xG1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleSalford City

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Rochdale
3
Draws
2
Salford City
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 71%
5–21–21–02–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Salford City

December 29, 2026: Rochdale take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Salford City at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.