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Rochdale vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Peterborough
Peterborough
J. Keohane 90'
J. Beesley 87'
S. Humphrys 55' (pen)
J. Clarke-Harris 90+3' (pen)
S. Szmodics 45+1'
S. Dembélé 5'
3/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 37Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale35%
×Draw25%
Peterborough40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.40
Peterborough
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 157 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Peterborough
1.46

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Peterborough
1.46

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
60%
Rochdale or Peterborough
75%
Draw or Peterborough
65%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Peterborough wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
41%
Rochdale 3+ goals
17%
Peterborough 1+ goals
78%
Peterborough 2+ goals
44%
Peterborough 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
47%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more
35%
level
25%
Peterborough scores more
40%

Peterborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. DembéléPeterboroughPeterborough · F
8.0

Match Events

5'
S. Dembélé↳ M. Beevers
45+1'
S. Szmodics↳ S. Dembélé
55'
S. HumphrysPenalty
58'
Oliver Rathbone
61'
M. Eisa← S. Szmodics
61'
I. Kanu← J. Ward
62'
K. Baah← S. Humphrys
77'
Frankie Kent
83'
A. Morley← C. Grant
87'
J. Beesley↳ M. Done
90'
Kwadwo Baah
90'
J. Keohane
90+3'
J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

Possession

44%Rochdale

Shots

16Rochdale

Pass accuracy

47%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdalePeterborough
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots15
2Corners1
15Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots15
5On Target5
8Off Target4
3Blocked6
5Inside Box8
11Outside Box7
Passing
44%Possession56%
409Total Passes508
296Accurate Passes407
72%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

League One: Rochdale 3–3 Peterborough

Rochdale and Peterborough drew 3-3 in League One on March 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Dembélé (5'), S. Szmodics (45+1'), S. Humphrys (55' pen), J. Beesley (87'), J. Keohane (90'), J. Clarke-Harris (90+3' pen).

Peterborough controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.