Peterborough 2–1 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

G. Cooper 84'

L. Tomlin 23'

E. Hamilton 90'

1/12/2019

League One · Round 28ABAX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Peterborough51%

×Draw23%

Rochdale26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.27

Peterborough

1.86

Rochdale

1.27

Peterborough creates 46% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 72 away

1.88

creates per match

1.38

1.17

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

74%

Peterborough or Rochdale

77%

Draw or Rochdale

49%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

29%

Rochdale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

84%

Peterborough 2+ goals

55%

Peterborough 3+ goals

28%

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

36%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

66%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peterborough scores more

51%

level

23%

Rochdale scores more

26%

Peterborough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

L. Tomlin

37'

Matt Done

46'

E. Ebanks-Landell← M. Williams

46'

C. Andrew← R. Delaney

52'

Ethan Hamilton

70'

G. Cooper← L. Tomlin

78'

B. Inman← S. Dooley

82'

A. Woodyard← K. Dempsey

84'

G. Cooper↳ M. Maddison

87'

Joe Rafferty

88'

B. White← J. Ward

90'

E. Hamilton

Peterborough

Rochdale

1

Lillis

4

McNulty

8

▼

Williams

2

Rafferty

5

▼

Delaney

16

Done

7

▼

Dooley

10

Camps

27

⚽

40

23

1

5

18

2

14

30

▼

Dempsey

10

Dembele

29

⚽

▼

Tomlin

17

Toney

21

A

Maddison

15

▼

Ward

Manager: S. Evans

70'▲G. Cooper←▼L. Tomlin

82'▲A. Woodyard←▼K. Dempsey

88'▲B. White←▼J. Ward

Peterborough substitutes

19Cooper4Woodyard6White9Godden11Reed25O'Malley26Stevens

Manager: K. Hill

46'▲E. Ebanks-Landell←▼M. Williams

46'▲C. Andrew←▼R. Delaney

78'▲B. Inman←▼S. Dooley

Rochdale substitutes

6Ebanks-Landell9Andrew19Inman3Ntlhe18Wilbraham24Norman25Adshead