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Peterborough vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Rochdale
Rochdale
N. Thompson 40'
J. Clarke-Harris 22', 10', 5' (pen)
S. Humphrys 9'
12/12/2020League OneLeague One · Round 17Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Peterborough51%
×Draw23%
Rochdale26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.86
Rochdale
1.27

Peterborough creates 46% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 72 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.88
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
74%
Peterborough or Rochdale
77%
Draw or Rochdale
49%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
29%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
84%
Peterborough 2+ goals
55%
Peterborough 3+ goals
28%
Rochdale 1+ goals
72%
Rochdale 2+ goals
36%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
66%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peterborough scores more
51%
level
23%
Rochdale scores more
26%

Peterborough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
H. BurrowsPeterboroughPeterborough · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty
9'
S. Humphrys↳ A. Morley
10'
J. Clarke-Harris↳ H. Burrows
22'
J. Clarke-Harris
36'
Mark Beevers
40'
N. Thompson↳ F. Clarke
45'
Nathan Thompson
63'
M. Eisa← S. Dembélé
66'
S. Szmodics← F. Clarke
72'
J. McNulty← T. Bola
81'
L. Reed← R. Brown
81'
R. Broom← J. Clarke-Harris
81'
N. Mason← M. Beevers
82'
M. Done← A. Newby
89'
K. Baah← S. Humphrys
89'
F. Tavares← S. Dooley
89'
E. Brierley← A. Morley

Possession

59%Peterborough

Shots

21Peterborough

Pass accuracy

52%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughRochdale
Overview
59%Possession41%
21Total Shots10
7Corners3
9Fouls5
Shots
21Total Shots10
8On Target3
8Off Target3
5Blocked4
14Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
560Total Passes387
482Accurate Passes301
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls5
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

League One: Peterborough 4–1 Rochdale

Peterborough beat Rochdale 4-1 in League One on December 12, 2020.

Goals: J. Clarke-Harris (5' pen, 10', 22'), S. Humphrys (9'), N. Thompson (40').

Peterborough controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.