Rochdale 1–4 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Peterborough

I. Henderson 17' (pen)

M. O'Hara 90+3', 34'

M. Godden 45+3'

J. Cummings 25'

8/11/2018

League One · Round 2Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale35%

×Draw25%

Peterborough40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.50

Rochdale

1.40

Peterborough

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 157 away

1.33

creates per match

1.46

1.54

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

60%

Rochdale or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

65%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

16%

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

75%

Rochdale 2+ goals

41%

Rochdale 3+ goals

17%

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

44%

Peterborough 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

47%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more

35%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

40%

Peterborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

I. HendersonPenalty

25'

J. Cummings↳ S. Dembele

34'

M. O'Hara↳ J. Cummings

41'

Alex Woodyard

45'

Harrison McGahey

45+3'

M. Godden

49'

C. Andrew← J. Rafferty

66'

A. Cannon← H. McGahey

72'

I. Toney← J. Cummings

77'

K. Ntlhe← M. Done

85'

C. Cooke← S. Dembele

90+2'

J. Yorwerth← M. Godden

90+3'

M. O'Hara↳ I. Toney

Rochdale

Peterborough

1

5

2

16

3

4

8

⚽2

O'Hara

10

A

▼

Dembele

9

⚽

▼

Godden

35

⚽A

▼

15

1

8

2

▼

Rafferty

6

▼

McGahey

5

Delaney

16

▼

17

19

10

18

40

⚽

Henderson

Manager: K. Hill

49'▲C. Andrew←▼J. Rafferty

66'▲A. Cannon←▼H. McGahey

77'▲K. Ntlhe←▼M. Done

Rochdale substitutes

9Andrew27Cannon3Ntlhe14Rathbone25Adshead22Moore4McNulty

Manager: S. Evans

72'▲I. Toney←▼J. Cummings

85'▲C. Cooke←▼S. Dembele

90+2'▲J. Yorwerth←▼M. Godden

Peterborough substitutes

17Toney14Cooke20Yorwerth40Tyler19Cooper23Denton11Reed