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RM Hamm Benfica vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
12/11/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 15Terrain de Football Cents

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

RM Hamm Benfica15%
×Draw19%
F91 Dudelange66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RM Hamm Benfica
0.99
F91 Dudelange
2.27

F91 Dudelange creates 129% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 112 away

creates per match

RM Hamm Benfica
0.86
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

RM Hamm Benfica
2.26
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RM Hamm Benfica ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RM Hamm Benfica or draw
34%
RM Hamm Benfica or F91 Dudelange
81%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
85%

Winning margin

RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
5%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
63%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
26%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
8%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
90%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
66%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
19%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RM Hamm Benfica at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.26 · 43 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RM Hamm Benfica attack 0.86 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

RM Hamm Benfica scores more
15%
level
19%
F91 Dudelange scores more
66%

F91 Dudelange at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RM Hamm Benfica vs F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat RM Hamm Benfica 4-0 in National Division on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain de Football Cents in Luxembourg.