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F91 Dudelange vs RM Hamm Benfica — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
N. Perez 86'
D. Turpel 63', 35'
S. Ibrahimovic 61', 14'
B. Cabral Barbosa 45', 9'
A. Alunni 45'
5/19/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 26Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

F91 Dudelange69%
×Draw17%
RM Hamm Benfica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.48
RM Hamm Benfica
1.02

F91 Dudelange creates 143% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 43 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.48
RM Hamm Benfica
0.88

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.17
RM Hamm Benfica
2.47

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
86%
F91 Dudelange or RM Hamm Benfica
83%
Draw or RM Hamm Benfica
31%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
47%
RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
92%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
70%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
44%
RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
64%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
27%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
83%
RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.48 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.48

RM Hamm Benfica attack 0.88 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
69%
level
17%
RM Hamm Benfica scores more
14%

F91 Dudelange at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
B. Cabral Barbosa
14'
S. Ibrahimovic
35'
D. Turpel
45'
B. Cabral Barbosa
45'
A. Alunni
61'
S. Ibrahimovic
63'
D. Turpel
86'
N. Perez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: F91 Dudelange 5–3 RM Hamm Benfica

F91 Dudelange beat RM Hamm Benfica 5-3 in National Division on May 19, 2019.

Goals: B. Cabral Barbosa (9', 45'), S. Ibrahimovic (14', 61'), D. Turpel (35', 63'), A. Alunni (45'), N. Perez (86').

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum.