F91 Dudelange 4–3 RM Hamm Benfica: Result & Stats

F91 Dudelange

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

RM Hamm Benfica

5/30/2021

National Division · Round 30Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

F91 Dudelange68%

×Draw18%

RM Hamm Benfica14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchRM Hamm Benfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.03

F91 Dudelange

2.46

RM Hamm Benfica

1.03

F91 Dudelange creates 139% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 43 away

2.45

creates per match

0.88

1.19

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

2.45

RM Hamm Benfica

0.88

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

1.19

RM Hamm Benfica

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

86%

F91 Dudelange or RM Hamm Benfica

82%

Draw or RM Hamm Benfica

32%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

46%

RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

91%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

70%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

44%

RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals

64%

RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals

28%

RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

83%

RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.46

RM Hamm Benfica attack 0.88 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

68%

level

18%

RM Hamm Benfica scores more

14%

F91 Dudelange at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff