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Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK — League #203 2026

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
A. Sowe 81'
Q. Laci 79'
M. Bayo 23'
4/13/2026League #203League #203 · Round 29Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rizespor59%
×Draw21%
Gaziantep FK20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.08
Gaziantep FK
1.14

Rizespor creates 82% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rizespor
1.50
Gaziantep FK
0.78

allows per match

Rizespor
1.50
Gaziantep FK
2.67

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
80%
Rizespor or Gaziantep FK
79%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
41%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
36%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
87%
Rizespor 2+ goals
61%
Rizespor 3+ goals
34%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
68%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
32%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
74%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.50 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gaziantep FK attack 0.78 + Rizespor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rizespor scores more
59%
level
21%
Gaziantep FK scores more
20%

Rizespor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Q. LaciRizesporRizespor · M
8.2

Match Events

23'
M. Bayo
25'
Luis Pérez
54'
Samet Akaydın
65'
H. Dervisoglu← I. Olawoyin
70'
Christophe Lungoyi
72'
A. Mebude← L. Augusto
72'
K. Gassama← A. Maxim
73'
Melih Kabasakal
78'
N. Mujakic← C. Lungoyi
78'
A. Kizildag← L. Perez
79'
Q. Laci↳ V. Mihaila
81'
A. Sowe
83'
Zafer Görgen
85'
D. Dragus← D. Camara
90'
Modibo Sagnan
90'
F. Pierrot← A. Sowe
90+1'
G. Papanikolaou← T. Antalyali
90+1'
T. Sahin← V. Mihaila

Possession

61%Rizespor

Shots

24Rizespor

Pass accuracy

52%Rizespor

Statistics

RizesporGaziantep
Overview
61%Possession39%
24Total Shots10
1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.73
9Corners1
13Fouls17
Shots
24Total Shots10
7On Target6
6Off Target3
11Blocked1
10Inside Box6
14Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
480Total Passes322
395Accurate Passes246
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
0.15Goals Prevented0.15
Discipline
13Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

League #203: Rizespor 2–1 Gaziantep FK

Rizespor beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 in League #203 on April 13, 2026.

Goals: M. Bayo (23'), Q. Laci (79'), A. Sowe (81').

Rizespor controlled possession (61%) and registered 24 shots to 10.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.