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Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK — League #203 2026

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
I. Olawoyin 90+4'
A. Sowe 77'
5/3/2025League #203League #203 · Round 34Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rizespor59%
×Draw21%
Gaziantep FK20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.08
Gaziantep FK
1.14

Rizespor creates 82% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rizespor
1.50
Gaziantep FK
0.78

allows per match

Rizespor
1.50
Gaziantep FK
2.67

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
80%
Rizespor or Gaziantep FK
79%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
41%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
36%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
87%
Rizespor 2+ goals
61%
Rizespor 3+ goals
34%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
68%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
32%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
74%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.50 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gaziantep FK attack 0.78 + Rizespor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rizespor scores more
59%
level
21%
Gaziantep FK scores more
20%

Rizespor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. OlawoyinRizesporRizespor · M
8.6

Match Events

20'
C. Lungoyi← E. Taşdemir
25'
Berkay Özcan
56'
Samet Akaydın
61'
D. Akintola← V. Jurečka
62'
M. Pala← B. Özcan
62'
E. Boateng← D. Okereke
75'
M. Buljubašić← D. Varešanović
76'
Babajide David Akintola
77'
A. Sowe↳ I. Olawoyin
85'
F. Soyalp← K. Kozłowski
85'
K. Kodro← S. Güler
90'
A. Karapo← A. Zeqiri
90+4'
I. Olawoyin↳ A. Sowe

Possession

44%Rizespor

Shots

20Rizespor

Pass accuracy

50%Rizespor

Statistics

RizesporGaziantep
Overview
44%Possession56%
20Total Shots14
2.89Expected Goals (xG)0.58
12Corners6
10Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots14
10On Target3
4Off Target5
6Blocked6
15Inside Box4
5Outside Box10
Passing
44%Possession56%
323Total Passes432
258Accurate Passes352
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
2.05Goals Prevented2.05
Discipline
10Fouls10
3Yellow Cards0
4Offsides1

League #203: Rizespor 2–0 Gaziantep FK

Rizespor beat Gaziantep FK 2-0 in League #203 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Sowe (77'), I. Olawoyin (90+4').

Gaziantep FK controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 20.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.