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Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor — League #203 2026

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rizespor
Rizespor
K. Rodrigues 74'
M. Bayo 2'
K. Rodrigues 59' (OG)
A. Sowe 29'
11/8/2025League #203League #203 · Round 12Kalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Gaziantep FK48%
×Draw24%
Rizespor27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
1.64
Rizespor
1.17

Gaziantep FK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
1.09
Rizespor
0.79

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
1.54
Rizespor
2.18

finishing

Gaziantep FK-0.09on par
Rizespor+0.04on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Rizespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
73%
Gaziantep FK or Rizespor
76%
Draw or Rizespor
52%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
25%
Rizespor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
81%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
49%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
23%
Rizespor 1+ goals
69%
Rizespor 2+ goals
33%
Rizespor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
64%
Rizespor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.54 · 10 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.18 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.09 + Rizespor defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rizespor attack 0.79 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
48%
level
24%
Rizespor scores more
27%

Gaziantep FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

75
Y. FofanaRizesporRizespor · G
7.9

Match Events

2'
M. Bayo↳ K. Kozlowski
21'
Melih Kabasakal
29'
A. Sowe
31'
Zafer Görgen
56'
O. Ozcicek← A. Maxim
59'
K. RodriguesOwn goal
60'
S. Guler← A. Kizildag
60'
D. Sorescu← L. Perez
65'
V. Mihaila← J. Rak-Sakyi
65'
T. Antalyali← Q. Laci
67'
Deian SorescuPenalty confirmed
70'
Taha Şahin
74'
K. Rodrigues↳ M. Kabasakal
77'
V. Jurecka← A. Sowe
77'
M. Pala← C. Hojer
81'
J. Bacuna← C. Lungoyi
81'
E. Boateng← M. Bayo
90+3'
Taylan Antalyalı
90+1'
K. Alikulov← M. Buljubasic

Possession

60%Gaziantep

Shots

15Gaziantep

Pass accuracy

52%Gaziantep

Statistics

GaziantepRizespor
Overview
60%Possession40%
15Total Shots11
3.05Expected Goals (xG)1.38
3Corners2
14Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots11
9On Target3
3Off Target7
3Blocked1
9Inside Box4
6Outside Box7
Passing
60%Possession40%
483Total Passes328
415Accurate Passes256
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
0.15Goals Prevented0.15
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League #203: Gaziantep FK 2–2 Rizespor

Gaziantep FK and Rizespor drew 2-2 in League #203 on November 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Bayo (2'), A. Sowe (29'), K. Rodrigues (59' o.g., 74').

Gaziantep FK controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kalyon Stadyumu in Gaziantep.