Rizespor 1–2 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Galatasaray

A. Sowe 54'

V. Osimhen 86', 47'

2/17/2025

League #203 · Round 24Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rizespor28%

×Draw24%

Galatasaray48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.75

Rizespor

1.29

Galatasaray

1.75

Galatasaray creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

1.93

1.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rizespor

1.57

Galatasaray

1.93

allows per match

Rizespor

1.57

Galatasaray

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

52%

Rizespor or Galatasaray

76%

Draw or Galatasaray

72%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

12%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

72%

Rizespor 2+ goals

37%

Rizespor 3+ goals

14%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

83%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

52%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

37%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.57 + Galatasaray defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Galatasaray attack 1.93 + Rizespor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rizespor scores more

28%

level

24%

Galatasaray scores more

48%

Galatasaray at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

V. Osimhen

Galatasaray · F

8.9

Match Events

23'

Carlos Cuesta

35'

Babajide David Akintola

45+4'

Mithat Pala

46'

E. Elmalı← C. Cuesta

46'

R. Sallai← D. Mertens

47'

V. Osimhen↳ P. Frankowski

54'

60'

71'

79'

84'

86'

V. Osimhen↳ M. Lemina

89'

K. Ayhan← B. Yılmaz

90+6'

Fernando Muslera

90+2'

V. Jurečka← A. Mocsi

90+2'

A. Zeqiri← I. Olawoyin

90+3'

K. Demirbay← Gabriel Sara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporGalatasaray

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots18

2.07Expected Goals (xG)1.82

3Corners7

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots18

4On Target3

7Off Target7

5Blocked8

11Inside Box10

5Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

363Total Passes417

283Accurate Passes339

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Rizespor 2-1 in League #203 on February 17, 2025.

Goals: V. Osimhen (47', 86'), A. Sowe (54').

Galatasaray controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.

Rizespor vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Galatasaray