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Galatasaray vs Rizespor — League #203 2026

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Rizespor
Rizespor
M. Icardi 85'
K. Demirbay 64' (pen), 45', 40'
L. Torreira 31'
D. Köhn 9'
I. Olawoyin 61'
C. Højer 38'
3/8/2024League #203League #203 · Round 29RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Galatasaray77%
×Draw15%
Rizespor9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
2.64
Rizespor
0.78

Galatasaray creates 238% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
2.42
Rizespor
0.71

allows per match

Galatasaray
0.85
Rizespor
2.86

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Rizespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
91%
Galatasaray or Rizespor
85%
Draw or Rizespor
23%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
55%
Rizespor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
93%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
74%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
48%
Rizespor 1+ goals
54%
Rizespor 2+ goals
18%
Rizespor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
90%
Rizespor (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.42 + Rizespor defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.64

Rizespor attack 0.71 + Galatasaray defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Galatasaray scores more
77%
level
15%
Rizespor scores more
9%

Galatasaray at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
K. DemirbayGalatasarayGalatasaray · M
8.9

Match Events

9'
D. Köhn
23'
Mauro Icardi
23'
W. Zaha← K. Ayhan
31'
L. Torreira
36'
Emirhan Topçu
38'
C. Højer↳ J. Shelvey
40'
K. Demirbay↳ D. Mertens
45'
K. Demirbay↳ M. Icardi
46'
A. Zeqiri← D. Varešanović
60'
Gustavo Sauer← D. Akintola
60'
M. Pala← M. Sarıkaya
60'
A. Gaich← M. Minchev
61'
I. Olawoyin
64'
K. DemirbayPenalty
78'
T. Ndombélé← L. Torreira
78'
H. Ziyech← D. Mertens
78'
Tetê← K. Aktürkoğlu
78'
M. Faye← M. Pala
85'
M. Icardi↳ Tetê
86'
Carlos Vinícius← M. Icardi

Possession

60%Galatasaray

Shots

14Galatasaray

Pass accuracy

53%Galatasaray

Statistics

GalatasarayRizespor
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots12
2.29Expected Goals (xG)0.51
3Corners3
18Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots12
10On Target4
2Off Target4
2Blocked4
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box6
Passing
60%Possession40%
488Total Passes319
399Accurate Passes232
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Rizespor

Galatasaray beat Rizespor 6-2 in League #203 on March 8, 2024.

Goals: D. Köhn (9'), L. Torreira (31'), C. Højer (38'), K. Demirbay (40', 45', 64' pen), I. Olawoyin (61'), M. Icardi (85').

Galatasaray controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at RAMS Park in İstanbul.