Galatasaray 3–1 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rizespor

M. Icardi 90'

V. Osimhen 65'

D. Sanchez 20'

D. Varesanovic 73'

8/30/2025

League #203 · Round 4Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray82%

×Draw12%

Rizespor6%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.72

Galatasaray

2.94

Rizespor

0.72

Galatasaray creates 308% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

2.48

creates per match

0.60

0.84

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.48

Rizespor

0.60

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.84

Rizespor

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

94%

Galatasaray or Rizespor

88%

Draw or Rizespor

18%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

62%

Rizespor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

95%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

79%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

55%

Rizespor 1+ goals

51%

Rizespor 2+ goals

16%

Rizespor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

93%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.48 + Rizespor defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.94

Rizespor attack 0.60 + Galatasaray defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Galatasaray scores more

82%

level

12%

Rizespor scores more

6%

Galatasaray at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Sanchez

Galatasaray · D

8.2

Match Events

20'

D. Sanchez↳ Gabriel Sara

35'

Qazim LaciGoal cancelled

36'

Ibrahim Olawoyin

53'

Husniddin Alikulov

60'

D. Varesanovic← M. Pala

60'

A. Zeqiri← H. Dervisoglu

65'

V. Osimhen↳ A. Bardakci

67'

M. Icardi← M. Lemina

73'

A. Mocsi← K. Alikulov

73'

M. Buljubasic← I. Olawoyin

73'

D. Varesanovic

83'

I. Jakobs← Y. Akgun

83'

N. Zaniolo← L. Sane

83'

K. Ayhan← Gabriel Sara

88'

88'

90+1'

90+3'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayRizespor

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots9

2.22Expected Goals (xG)1.30

5Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots9

7On Target4

8Off Target4

1Blocked1

12Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

523Total Passes291

459Accurate Passes220

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3