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Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
Q. Laci 15'
A. Sowe 6'
A. Brown 88'
Y. En Nesyri 78'
M. Asensio 65', 54'
Talisca 58'
11/23/2025League #203League #203 · Round 13Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rizespor28%
×Draw23%
Fenerbahçe49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
1.32
Fenerbahçe
1.81

Fenerbahçe creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rizespor
1.72
Fenerbahçe
2.08

allows per match

Rizespor
1.53
Fenerbahçe
0.92

finishing

Rizespor-0.29scores less
Fenerbahçe+0.42scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
51%
Rizespor or Fenerbahçe
77%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
72%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
12%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
73%
Rizespor 2+ goals
38%
Rizespor 3+ goals
15%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
84%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
54%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
36%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.72 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fenerbahçe attack 2.08 + Rizespor defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rizespor scores more
28%
level
23%
Fenerbahçe scores more
49%

Fenerbahçe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. AsensioFenerbahçeFenerbahçe · M
9.0

Match Events

6'
A. Sowe↳ J. Rak-Sakyi
15'
Q. Laci
47'
Samet Akaydın
52'
İsmail Yüksek
54'
M. Asensio
56'
A. Brown← Fred
56'
Talisca← M. Muldur
57'
Qazim Laci
58'
Talisca
61'
I. Olawoyin← M. Buljubasic
63'
Qazim Laci
63'
Qazim Laci
65'
M. Asensio↳ J. Duran
75'
V. Jurecka← E. Bulut
75'
Y. En Nesyri← J. Duran
76'
A. Zeqiri← J. Rak-Sakyi
78'
Y. En Nesyri↳ D. Nene
83'
T. Antalyali← G. Papanikolaou
83'
M. Pala← C. Hojer
84'
Rodrigo Becao← J. Oosterwolde
85'
O. Aydin← D. Nene
88'
A. Brown↳ M. Asensio

Possession

41%Rizespor

Shots

6Rizespor

Pass accuracy

47%Rizespor

Statistics

RizesporFenerbahçe
Overview
41%Possession59%
6Total Shots28
0.84Expected Goals (xG)3.34
5Corners9
16Fouls6
Shots
6Total Shots28
2On Target14
2Off Target6
2Blocked8
2Inside Box12
4Outside Box16
Passing
41%Possession59%
307Total Passes457
241Accurate Passes409
79%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
9Saves0
-0.83Goals Prevented-0.83
Discipline
16Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

League #203: Rizespor 2–5 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 5-2 in League #203 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: A. Sowe (6'), Q. Laci (15'), M. Asensio (54', 65'), Talisca (58'), Y. En Nesyri (78'), A. Brown (88').

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (59%) and registered 28 shots to 6.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.