Rizespor 1–3 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fenerbahçe

M. Minchev 27'

İ. Kahveci 90+3'

E. Džeko 65'

S. Dursun 48'

2/17/2024

League #203 · Round 26Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Rizespor27%

×Draw23%

Fenerbahçe50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.81

Rizespor

1.26

Fenerbahçe

1.81

Fenerbahçe creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

2.06

1.56

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Rizespor

1.60

Fenerbahçe

2.06

allows per match

Rizespor

1.56

Fenerbahçe

0.91

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

Rizespor-0.22scores less

Fenerbahçe+0.47scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

50%

Rizespor or Fenerbahçe

77%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

73%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

11%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

72%

Rizespor 2+ goals

36%

Rizespor 3+ goals

13%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

84%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

54%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

35%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.56 · 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.91 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.60 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fenerbahçe attack 2.06 + Rizespor defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rizespor scores more

27%

level

23%

Fenerbahçe scores more

50%

Fenerbahçe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

İ. Kahveci

Fenerbahçe · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

Muammer Sarıkaya

19'

Emirhan Topçu

27'

M. Minchev↳ D. Akintola

28'

45+1'

46'

46'

46'

S. Dursun← S. Szymański

48'

S. Dursun↳ İ. Kahveci

59'

Babajide David Akintola

65'

E. Džeko↳ M. Yandaş

69'

A. Gaich← D. Akintola

69'

D. Varešanović← M. Sarıkaya

77'

80'

90+6'

90+7'

90+4'

M. Müldür← F. Kadıoğlu

90+3'

İ. Kahveci↳ D. Tadić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporFenerbahçe

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots13

0.75Expected Goals (xG)1.79

3Corners6

16Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target5

2Off Target6

1Blocked2

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

380Total Passes312

264Accurate Passes202

69%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

League #203: Rizespor 1–3 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 3-1 in League #203 on February 17, 2024.

Goals: M. Minchev (27'), S. Dursun (48'), E. Džeko (65'), İ. Kahveci (90+3').

Rizespor controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Rizespor 1–3 Fenerbahçe