Rizespor 0–5 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Fenerbahçe

H. Aliqulov 66' (OG)

Fred 64', 60', 15'

E. Džeko 53'

8/25/2024

League #203 · Round 3Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rizespor25%

×Draw23%

Fenerbahçe52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.83

Rizespor

1.19

Fenerbahçe

1.83

Fenerbahçe creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.49

creates per match

2.06

1.61

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Rizespor

1.49

Fenerbahçe

2.06

allows per match

Rizespor

1.61

Fenerbahçe

0.89

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Rizespor-0.27scores less

Fenerbahçe+0.63scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

48%

Rizespor or Fenerbahçe

77%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

75%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

10%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

70%

Rizespor 2+ goals

33%

Rizespor 3+ goals

12%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

84%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

54%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

32%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.49 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fenerbahçe attack 2.06 + Rizespor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rizespor scores more

25%

level

23%

Fenerbahçe scores more

52%

Fenerbahçe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Fred

Fenerbahçe · M

9.3

Match Events

4'

Fred

15'

Fred↳ D. Tadić

29'

Husniddin Alikulov

32'

Babajide David Akintola

45+2'

Çağlar Söyüncü

50'

Muhammet Taha Şahin

53'

E. Džeko↳ M. Müldür

60'

Fred↳ A. Saint-Maximin

61'

M. Minchev← A. Zeqiri

61'

A. Hadžiahmetović← G. Papanikolaou

64'

Fred

66'

H. AliqulovOwn goal

67'

A. Yaşar← D. Varešanović

67'

E. Korkmaz← T. Şahin

70'

Rodrigo Becão← Ç. Söyüncü

70'

Y. En-Nesyri← E. Džeko

70'

İ. Kahveci← A. Saint-Maximin

78'

C. Ünder← D. Tadić

79'

M. Pala← İ. Pehlivan

81'

L. Mercan← Fred

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporFenerbahçe

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots19

0.61Expected Goals (xG)1.97

1Corners6

13Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots19

3On Target8

4Off Target8

2Blocked3

6Inside Box14

3Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

428Total Passes454

352Accurate Passes386

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards2

League #203: Rizespor 0–5 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 5-0 in League #203 on August 25, 2024.

Goals: Fred (15', 60', 64'), E. Džeko (53'), H. Aliqulov (66' o.g.).

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Rizespor 0–5 Fenerbahçe