Rizespor 3–2 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Adana Demirspor

R. Ghezzal 69' (pen)

A. Sowe 47'

I. Olawoyin 30'

Maestro 83'

B. Balat 52'

1/26/2025

League #203 · Round 21Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rizespor41%

×Draw21%

Adana Demirspor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.91

Rizespor

2.00

Adana Demirspor

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.75

2.07

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Rizespor

1.50

Adana Demirspor

1.75

allows per match

Rizespor

2.07

Adana Demirspor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

62%

Rizespor or Adana Demirspor

79%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

59%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

23%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

86%

Rizespor 2+ goals

59%

Rizespor 3+ goals

32%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

85%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

57%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

52%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.50 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Adana Demirspor attack 1.75 + Rizespor defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rizespor scores more

41%

level

21%

Adana Demirspor scores more

38%

Rizespor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Olawoyin

Rizespor · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

Ali SoweGoal confirmed

21'

Ali SoweGoal cancelled

24'

Giannis Papanikolaou

30'

I. Olawoyin↳ C. Højer

46'

47'

52'

58'

62'

A. Hadžiahmetović← D. Varešanović

69'

R. GhezzalPenalty

70'

Maestro

70'

Semih Güler

73'

V. Jurečka← A. Sowe

73'

M. Buljubašić← G. Papanikolaou

82'

O. Kaynak← A. Kol

83'

Taha Şahin

83'

Maestro↳ O. Kaynak

89'

E. Bulut← R. Ghezzal

89'

S. Akaydin← I. Olawoyin

90+4'

Václav JurečkaMissed penalty

90'

Casper Højer

90+2'

Deniz Eren Donmezer

90+1'

O. Demirbag← A. Aymbetov

90+4'

B. Ersoy← N. Alioui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporAdana

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots12

3.68Expected Goals (xG)0.88

8Corners2

23Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target3

5Off Target8

3Blocked1

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box9

Passing

57%Possession43%

455Total Passes336

387Accurate Passes251

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

1.40Goals Prevented1.40

Discipline

23Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

7Offsides2

League #203: Rizespor 3–2 Adana Demirspor

Rizespor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 in League #203 on January 26, 2025.

Goals: I. Olawoyin (30'), A. Sowe (47'), B. Balat (52'), R. Ghezzal (69' pen), Maestro (83').

Rizespor controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.

Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Rizespor 3–2 Adana Demirspor