Adana Demirspor 2–2 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rizespor

Y. Sarı 117'

B. Öztürk 85' (OG)

D. Akintola 68' (pen)

A. Koç 108'

K. Kanatsızkuş 105'

D. Hümmet 45+1'

S. Yılmaz 7'

12/22/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundYeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Adana Demirspor69%

×Draw17%

Rizespor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.11

Adana Demirspor

2.59

Rizespor

1.11

Adana Demirspor creates 133% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

3.33

creates per match

1.23

1.00

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

3.33

Rizespor

1.23

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.00

Rizespor

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

86%

Adana Demirspor or Rizespor

83%

Draw or Rizespor

31%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

47%

Rizespor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

92%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

73%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

47%

Rizespor 1+ goals

67%

Rizespor 2+ goals

30%

Rizespor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

83%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Rizespor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.59

Rizespor attack 1.23 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

69%

level

17%

Rizespor scores more

14%

Adana Demirspor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

33'

33'

33'

35'

45+1'

46'

E. Akbaba← B. Bjarnason

46'

E. Öztümer← B. Yıldız

62'

K. Kanatsızkuş← F. Miya

62'

A. Potuk← Ronaldo Mendes

65'

Y. Sarı← G. İnler

65'

Kévin Rodrigues← İ. Çokçalış

65'

B. Stambouli← P. NDiaye

67'

Sefa Yılmaz

68'

D. AkintolaPenalty

71'

79'

79'

83'

85'

B. ÖztürkOwn goal

91'

S. Güler← S. Akaydin

105'

K. Kanatsızkuş

106'

M. Şebelek← D. Hümmet

108'

A. Koç

117'

Y. Sarı

Shots

Statistics

AdanaRizespor

Overview

23Total Shots16

7Corners3

14Fouls19

Shots

23Total Shots16

11On Target7

8Off Target4

4Blocked5

Goalkeeping

5Saves10

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor

Adana Demirspor and Rizespor drew 2-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 22, 2022.

Goals: S. Yılmaz (7'), D. Hümmet (45+1'), D. Akintola (68' pen), B. Öztürk (85' o.g.), K. Kanatsızkuş (105'), A. Koç (108'), Y. Sarı (117').

The match was played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Adana.

Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor