Adana Demirspor 1–2 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rizespor

Y. Barası 90+8' (pen)

A. Sowe 74'

H. Aliqulov 41'

8/17/2024

League #203 · Round 2Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Adana Demirspor59%

×Draw20%

Rizespor21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.23

Adana Demirspor

2.17

Rizespor

1.23

Adana Demirspor creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.07

1.40

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

2.20

Rizespor

1.07

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.40

Rizespor

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

79%

Adana Demirspor or Rizespor

80%

Draw or Rizespor

41%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

36%

Rizespor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

89%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

64%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

36%

Rizespor 1+ goals

71%

Rizespor 2+ goals

35%

Rizespor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

74%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 2.20 + Rizespor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.17

Rizespor attack 1.07 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

59%

level

20%

Rizespor scores more

21%

Adana Demirspor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

H. Aliqulov

Rizespor · D

8.0

Match Events

41'

H. Aliqulov↳ C. Højer

46'

N. Alioui← T. Aydoğan

53'

Yusuf Sarı

64'

A. Hadžiahmetović← D. Varešanović

67'

A. Aymbetov← José Rodríguez

74'

76'

76'

76'

82'

90+4'

90+1'

A. Yaşar← I. Olawoyin

90+1'

M. Minchev← D. Akintola

90+8'

Y. BarasıPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdanaRizespor

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots12

1.26Expected Goals (xG)1.45

1Corners6

14Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target5

5Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

405Total Passes350

334Accurate Passes273

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.40Goals Prevented0.40

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides5