River Plate 1–1 Libertad Asuncion: Result & Stats

River Plate

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Libertad Asuncion

S. Driussi 29'

R. Rojas 43'

8/22/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

River Plate58%

×Draw23%

Libertad Asuncion19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.88

River Plate

1.75

Libertad Asuncion

0.88

River Plate creates 99% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

River Plate

2.00

Libertad Asuncion

0.75

allows per match

River Plate

1.00

Libertad Asuncion

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

81%

River Plate or Libertad Asuncion

77%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

42%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

33%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

83%

River Plate 2+ goals

52%

River Plate 3+ goals

25%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

59%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

22%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

76%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 2.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.75 + River Plate defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

River Plate scores more

58%

level

23%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

19%

River Plate at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Armani

Libertad Asuncion

8.3

Match Events

18'

Iván Franco

20'

Giuliano Galoppo

29'

S. Driussi

43'

R. Rojas↳ H. Fernandez

45+4'

46'

52'

52'

54'

M. Galarza← J. Quintero

61'

H. Caballero← A. Campuzano

61'

M. Fernandez← H. Fernandez

68'

Gonzalo Montiel

68'

Miguel Borja← S. Driussi

70'

Nacho Fernández

77'

A. Cardozo Lucena← L. Sanabria

77'

R. Villalba← I. Franco

79'

K. Castano← E. Perez

79'

I. Subiabre← F. Colidio

89'

J. Recalde← G. Aguilar

90+1'

Ángel Cardozo Lucena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverLibertad

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots17

1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.19

2Corners6

8Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots17

7On Target8

6Off Target4

3Blocked5

9Inside Box9

7Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

530Total Passes348

401Accurate Passes233

76%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

0.69Goals Prevented0.69

Discipline

8Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0