Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

River Plate vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

River Plate
River Plate
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
M. Borja 84', 41'
5/15/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

River Plate58%
×Draw23%
Libertad Asuncion19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.78
Libertad Asuncion
0.89

River Plate creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

River Plate
2.00
Libertad Asuncion
0.78

allows per match

River Plate
1.00
Libertad Asuncion
1.56

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
81%
River Plate or Libertad Asuncion
77%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
42%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
33%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
83%
River Plate 2+ goals
53%
River Plate 3+ goals
26%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
59%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
22%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
76%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 2.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.78 + River Plate defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

River Plate scores more
58%
level
23%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
19%

River Plate at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. BorjaRiver PlateRiver Plate · F
8.6

Match Events

41'
M. Borja↳ M. Casco
59'
L. Melgarejo← M. Espinoza
65'
P. Diaz
68'
H. Caballero
70'
E. Barco← C. Echeverri
70'
P. Solari← I. Fernández
71'
Ó. Cardozo← R. Santa Cruz
71'
A. Bareiro← I. Franco
75'
A. Bareiro
81'
N. Fonseca← R. Aliendro
81'
F. Mastantuono← F. Colidio
81'
Á. Campuzano← H. Caballero
81'
G. Aguilar← B. Merlini
84'
M. Borja↳ P. Solari
86'
M. Kranevitter← R. Villagra

Possession

58%River

Shots

17River

Pass accuracy

53%River

Statistics

RiverLibertad
Overview
58%Possession42%
17Total Shots6
1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.31
6Corners7
9Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots6
6On Target1
7Off Target4
4Blocked1
10Inside Box2
7Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
590Total Passes408
488Accurate Passes304
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
6Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: River Plate 2–0 Libertad Asuncion

River Plate beat Libertad Asuncion 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 15, 2024.

Goals: M. Borja (41', 84').

River Plate controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Mâs Monumental in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.