Libertad Asuncion 0–0 River Plate: Result & Stats

Libertad Asuncion

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

River Plate

8/15/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Libertad Asuncion31%

×Draw27%

River Plate41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.34

Libertad Asuncion

1.13

River Plate

1.34

River Plate creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.86

creates per match

1.40

1.29

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

0.86

River Plate

1.40

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.29

River Plate

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

59%

Libertad Asuncion or River Plate

73%

Draw or River Plate

69%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

13%

River Plate wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

68%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

31%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

11%

River Plate 1+ goals

74%

River Plate 2+ goals

39%

River Plate 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

43%

River Plate (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.86 + River Plate defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

River Plate attack 1.40 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

31%

level

27%

River Plate scores more

41%

River Plate at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Silva

Libertad Asuncion · G

8.9

Match Events

46'

N. Fernandez← K. Castano

46'

J. Quintero← S. Lencina

46'

S. Driussi← Miguel Borja

58'

M. Fernandez← I. Franco

58'

C. R. Santa← G. Aguilar

78'

Marcelo Fernandez

81'

H. Caballero← A. Campuzano

81'

J. Recalde← H. Fernandez

85'

Jorge Recalde

86'

Robert Rojas

90+1'

A. Cardozo Lucena← L. Sanabria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LibertadRiver

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots20

0.42Expected Goals (xG)1.40

3Corners5

9Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots20

2On Target7

5Off Target9

2Blocked4

4Inside Box12

5Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

291Total Passes597

179Accurate Passes476

62%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

0.21Goals Prevented0.21

Discipline

9Fouls16

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Libertad Asuncion 0–0 River Plate

Libertad Asuncion and River Plate drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 15, 2025.

River Plate controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.

Libertad Asuncion vs River Plate — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Libertad Asuncion 0–0 River Plate