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River Plate vs Brazil Juniors — Division di Honor 2019

River Plate
River Plate
FT
1 – 5
Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
2/2/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 10Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

River Plate52%
×Draw19%
Brazil Juniors29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
2.67
Brazil Juniors
1.98

River Plate creates 35% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.81
Brazil Juniors
1.47

allows per match

River Plate
2.50
Brazil Juniors
3.53

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par
Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Brazil Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
71%
River Plate or Brazil Juniors
81%
Draw or Brazil Juniors
48%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
33%
Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
93%
River Plate 2+ goals
74%
River Plate 3+ goals
49%
Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
86%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
59%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
64%
Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 42 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.47, concedes 3.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.81 + Brazil Juniors defence 3.53 → ÷2 → 2.67

Brazil Juniors attack 1.47 + River Plate defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

River Plate scores more
52%
level
19%
Brazil Juniors scores more
29%

River Plate at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: River Plate vs Brazil Juniors

Brazil Juniors beat River Plate 5-1 in Division di Honor on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad).