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Brazil Juniors vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
River Plate
River Plate
4/26/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brazil Juniors40%
×Draw20%
River Plate39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil Juniors
2.13
River Plate
2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 43 away

creates per match

Brazil Juniors
1.92
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Brazil Juniors
2.25
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw
61%
Brazil Juniors or River Plate
80%
Draw or River Plate
60%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
23%
River Plate wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
88%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
63%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
35%
River Plate 1+ goals
88%
River Plate 2+ goals
62%
River Plate 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
51%
River Plate (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.92 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

River Plate attack 1.95 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more
40%
level
20%
River Plate scores more
39%

Brazil Juniors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brazil Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brazil Juniors vs River Plate

Brazil Juniors and River Plate drew 2-2 in Division di Honor on April 26, 2026.